106 tests in all of 2012

BARCELONA -- The Jamaica Anti-Doping Commission performed a mere 106 anti-doping tests in all of 2012, according to statistics made public Tuesday by the World Anti-Doping Agency in a wide-ranging report that illuminates both the challenges and progress in the global anti-doping campaign. Of the 106, 68 were performed out-of-competition; 38 were taken at meets. The 106 tests caught no one cheating.

Compare the Jamaican number -- 106 -- to the number of tests performed by the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency in 2012: 4,051. Or the Russian National Anti-Doping Organization: 15,854. The Chinese: 10,066. German: 8,077. Italian: 6,794. British: 5,971. Australian: 5,186. Japanese: 4,956. Indian: 4,051.

Jamaica's 106 tests were five more than Malta, two more than Slovenia and nine fewer than Iceland. The anti-doping agency in Iran performed 75 more tests than the Jamaicans.

Now ask: who is making a serious effort in trying to catch sports dopers?

The 2012 WADA report for the first time amounts to a one-stop shop. In previous years, there were two separate reports -- one for the WADA-accredited labs, another for the various national anti-doping organizations. The report collects the numbers from both sources into one document.

Further, it collects the lab and anti-doping organization data for blood tests, urine tests and the so-called "athlete biological passport" samples.

The report is filled with fascinating, compelling facts and figures.

For instance, the return rate in Olympic sports -- as it has been for years -- for what is called an "adverse analytical finding," meaning a positive test, is right around 1 percent.

Considering only the samples that cycling's governing body, the International Cycling Union, which goes by the acronym UCI, submitted for its riders last year, blood and urine, in and out of competition -- the return rate was, predictably, 1.1 percent, 84 of 5,633 in-competition and 11 of 3,307 out-of-competition, 95 over 8,940 total.

Track and field's return rate, again considering only those samples submitted by the federation: 0.7 percent.

Aquatic sports: 0.9 percent.

The Olympic federations with serious challenges -- far more than cycling and track, which are widely perceived to be plagued by doping issues?

Weightlifting, with a return rate on 1,815 samples of 4.2 percent.

Curling, believe it or not -- with four out-of-competition positives out of 96 total samples, again for a return rate of 4.2 percent.

And the Olympic federation facing the most serious challenge? Equestrian. Five in-competition positives from 65 overall samples, for a rate of 7.7 percent.

Overall, there were 20,624 cycling samples analyzed in 2012; 27,836 in track and field; 13,069 in swimming; and, to the surprise of some who might believe cycling is by far the most aggressively policed sport, 28,008 in soccer.

No names or nationalities are attached to the figures.

The obvious question: what are all those tests proving?

The public wants the tests to do what they simply can't do -- show to some level of satisfaction that athletes are clean. But, as the report makes clear, it's another test produces far more vivid results.

It's called the carbon-isotope test. With it, the numbers change dramatically.

The IAAF, track and field's governing body, for instance, authorized 97 such cutting-edge tests last year; 35 were out-of-competition and turned up no positives; 62 were done in-meet, when ordinary tests would likely turn up nothing; nine of the 62 came back positive.

Using the carbon-isotope test raised the return rate in track and field to 5.75 percent overall, 34 of 591 cases, and to 4.97 percent in cycling, 27 of 543.

An even more compelling example of the use of the carbon-isotope test:

The Thai Weightlifting Federation performed an out-of-competition test on 26 weightlifters; 25, or 96.2 percent, came back positive, according to the WADA report.

If carbon-isotope testing produces "better" results, the fact is it's also expensive.

As the carbon-isotope numbers underscore, it is only the allocation of more money that would provide the level of assurance in a level playing field -- particularly in the aftermath of the Lance Armstrong matter -- that many assert they want in today's sports environment.

Where, though, would such funding come from? WADA is funded both from sport, largely meaning the International Olympic Committee, and from governments around the world. In an era of tight budgets, are governments likely -- or not -- to see funding for doping controls as a pressing priority?

Until then, as the saying goes, you get what you pay for.

It has for years been common knowledge that the blood-booster erythropoietin, or EPO, would be sought after by cyclists, long-distance runners, cross-country skiers -- or, for that matter, any athlete seeking a competitive edge.

So, for instance, the IAAF in 2012 authorized 1,392 EPO tests, in and out of competition. The tests caught no one.

The Russian national doping organization performed 3,063 EPO tests. Positives? None.

The UCI instituted 1,137 tests in competition, catching six, and 3,117 out of competition, catching three. In all, 4,254 tests for a return rate of 0.21 percent.

In the meantime, also sure to add to the debate, as the IOC prepares in the coming weeks to nominate one of three candidates to the WADA presidency -- former hurdles great Edwin Moses, IOC vice president Craig Reedie or former IOC medical director Patrick Schamasch -- there's this:

Worldwide, labs analyzed roughly 185,000 samples from athletes across all the Olympic sports in 2012. There turned up a total of 4,500 "adverse analytical findings" as well as "atypical findings," meaning a case that requires further investigation, for a combined rate of 2.4 percent.

Of those 4,500, 2,279, or 50.6 percent, were for anabolic steroids, topping the list.

Next: stimulants, 697, 15.5 percent.

Next, and this is why there is such discussion about whether it ought to be on the list in the first instance as a performance-enhancer, cannabinoids, meaning marijuana, 406, 9 percent.

At a meeting May 11, WADA's executive committee announced that effective immediately it was significantly raising the threshold required for an athlete to test positive.

Ryan Braun and real math

That Milwaukee Brewers slugger Ryan Braun, the 2011 National League Most Valuable Player, accepted a suspension for the remainder of the 2013 season, 65 games, marks a step forward for baseball's credibility in waging its anti-doping campaign. The action also makes it plain that baseball is dead serious in its investigation of the now-defunct Biogenesis clinic in South Florida, which is accused of supplying performance-enhancing drugs to a list of other players, foremost among them Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees. Rodriguez has denied any involvement. Stay tuned.

It also means baseball manifestly now understands what Olympic authorities have for years -- that you don't need positive tests but can rely on notebooks, receipts and other evidence to make a powerful case. And that the commissioner's office and the players' union jointly comprehend, and can work together to do something about, the real threat doping poses to the integrity of the game.

But it's just a start, and pending what's yet to come with Rodriguez and the others -- it's not enough.

Baseball needs, at the minimum, to adopt an Olympic-style approach to doping-related jurisprudence. Athletes who cheat need to be suspended for two years, at least, without pay. Baseball also needs to strip players of whatever awards and achievements they won while they were juiced, just like Olympic "champions" have to give back their medals.

Otherwise, why bother?

This, like many things in baseball, is an exercise in math -- probabilities, possibilities, tendencies and statistics. And, like many plays in baseball, there are short- and long-term implications.

First, giving baseball credit. The sport has made significant advances since the BALCO scandal erupted 10 years ago, and again since the 2007 Mitchell Report. Baseball at least has in place now testing protocols and a three-tier suspension program: 50 games for a first steroid-related offense, 100 for a second, a purported lifetime ban for a third.

Then again, as evidence of how flawed the system remains, there's this:

Last season, pitcher Bartolo Colon failed a drug test. Baseball hit him with a 50-game suspension. He served it (the final five games came this year) and signed a new deal with the Oakland A's. Now Colon is a candidate for the Cy Young Award for the American League's top pitcher; on Sunday, he shut out the Angels, improving his record to 13-3 and lowering his earned-run average to 2.52.

The game Sunday was Colon's first start since returning from the All-Star Game -- Colon's third career All-Star Game appearance. Again, and for emphasis: last year, a drug cheat, this year an All-Star.

Asked by reporters Sunday to explain how Colon is able in this, his 16th big-league season, to pitch at such a high level, A's manager Bob Melvin said, "I've been trying to explain it all year and I can't."

Colon, like Braun, like Rodriguez, has been linked to Biogenesis.

Most of the U.S. press harshly criticized Braun after word of his suspension came down on Monday.

ESPN's Buster Olney, for instance, called him the "Lance Armstrong of baseball."  Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports said Braun's name is "ruined," his reputation "shattered," and he will "forever be an object of scorn." Christine Brennan at USA Today: "They threw the bum out."

Why such intense reaction?

Because, perhaps, Braun had escaped liability for a 2011 test on a technicality, then said at a news conference in the Arizona desert before spring training in February 2012, "Today is about anybody who has been wrongly accused," and, "The simple truth is I'm innocent."

In a statement issued Monday by Major League Baseball, Braun said, "I realize now that I have made some mistakes."

He realized that because he was flat-out caught, of course. Moreover, the statement does not acknowledge in plain language what those "mistakes" might be, even if they're obvious.

All of that, yes.

And yet, from here, while Braun may -- and let us emphasize, may -- be embarrassed, what is his real punishment? Again, probabilities, possibilities, tendencies. There's short-term damage control, for sure. But in the long run, who's the winner?

Consider:

The Brewers are terrible, as of Tuesday 16 games under .500, 19 games back of St. Louis in the National League Central. Braun's right thumb, moreover, is hurt. So sitting out 65 games in a lost season? Big deal.

Commissioner Bud Selig gets to crow that he got one of the game's big names for more than 50 games. Sixty-five is 15 more than 50. That's a bonus for the commissioner, who also undeniably sends a signal to Rodriguez. But for Braun -- so what?

The announcement by MLB suspending Braun doesn't spell out why. For Braun -- that's a win.

When Lance Armstrong was found out to be a serial doper, the seven Tour de France titles were no longer his. When Marion Jones was found out to be a cheater, her Olympic medals were stripped. Ryan Braun's MVP award? That's still his.

And here's Braun's biggest win:

Braun's suspension means he has to forfeit nearly half of his $8.5 million 2013 salary. Again, so what? He's getting a guaranteed $127 million from the Brewers through 2020.

Rosenthal, in that same column, estimated that the money Braun would forfeit this year would amount to 2 percent of Braun's career earnings.

This, bluntly, is the problem.

Do the math. Run the analysis. If you can take steroids (or whatever), and those performance-enhancing drugs can help you bang your way to a deal worth more than $100 million, and then you get caught, and getting caught means you have to give up 2 percent of the money -- would you make that trade?

Absolutely you would. Two percent? That's an ATM fee.

Who cares, meanwhile, what all those sports writers say? That's just noise.

Unless and until baseball enacts a policy that means a big name like Braun is giving up two years and something like $40 million -- now we're talking real money -- there's no meaningful deterrent. Frankly, it's debatable whether $40 million from $127 million is significant enough -- after all, that still leaves 87 million reasons to take steroids -- but at least it's enough to start the conversation.

Next spring, Ryan Braun will come back and there will likely be another news conference in the Arizona desert, and he will say something and we will all get back on with the business of baseball. Contrary to what my good friend Christine Brennan wrote -- she and I went to college and graduated together -- baseball did not throw the bum out.

Look around. Mark McGwire is now the hitting coach of the Los Angeles Dodgers.